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Blue Dart Express Ltd. reported a miss, with standalone Ebitda and profit after tax declining 52% and 67% QoQ.
Normalisation of pent-up consumer spending (e-commerce) and impending increasing competition from increased belly cargo of domestic freighters, rail (new competition) as well as road makes us less confident on the volume or yield thesis.
The underlying competitive dynamics of air express in a price-sensitive market remain unchanged.
We have seen a glimpse of normalisation in Q1 FY22; gross margin/shipment and Ebitda /shipment is well below its FY21E peak.
Blue Dart’s Q1 FY22 volumes witnessed ~ 3.3 times YoY growths and yet Ebitda margins (standalone) corrected back to single digits from the bulge witnessed in FY21.
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