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After posting more than 40% YoY Ebitda growth in each of the past two quarters, cement companies in our coverage universe are likely to repeat the performance in Q4 FY21 too.
This would be led by 24% YoY volume growth with Ebitda/tonne rising 14% YoY (Rs 150/tonne) to Rs 1,218/tonne.
We expect realisations to rise 0.6% QoQ (Rs 30/tonne) and 4% YoY (Rs 190/tonne).
Key trigger to watch: seasonal price hikes in April 2021 (already announced Rs 15/bag) given peak construction period and necessitated by cost escalations.
Consensus earnings are yet again likely to be upgraded given better than expected volumes/prices.
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