India Economy Watch – CPI Inflation Flat In June; IIP Higher Than Expected In May: Motilal Oswal

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Consumer price index-based retail inflation came in unchanged at 6.3% YoY in June 2021. The number was marginally above our expectation of 6.1%, but below the Bloomberg consensus of 6.6% YoY in June-21.

More importantly, price data for June-21 was collected from ~80% of the markets, compared with ~68% in May-21, implying better reporting as lockdown rules eased in several states last month.

Separately, index of industrial production grew 29.3% YoY in May-21 (against growth of 134.6% YoY in April-21 and decline of 33.4% YoY in May-20) – above our expectation of 15.6% YoY, but marginally below the Bloomberg consensus of 32% YoY.

Notably, IIP numbers for February-21/April-21 were revised up to down 3.2%/134.6% YoY (from down 3.4%/134.4%).

Click on the attachment to read the full report:

Motilal Oswal Eco-CPI-IIP.pdf


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