Football has a 58% chance of coming home on Sunday night when England play Italy in the final of Euro 2020 at Wembley Stadium, according to a forecast by analysts at Goldman Sachs.
Analysts at the bank have built a statistical model for the tournament by looking at the number of goals scored by each team using a dataset of international football matches since 1980.
The analysts’ predict that England will beat Italy 2-1 after extra time to clinch the tournament in the final at Wembley on 11 July.
“For the final on Sunday our model predicts a close call and sees a 58% chance of England winning a major tournament for the first time since 1966,” the note said.
Goldman had predicted that England would beat Denmark 2-1, which was the eventual results after England captain Harry Kane scored an extra time winner to get the Three Lions over the line.
The bank had forecast an England final with Spain, however, La Roja were beaten in a penalty shootout by Italy on 6 July after a dramatic 1-1 draw.
In its original prediction, Goldman forecast a first major tournament win for a talented Belgium team, led by Manchester City playmaker Kevin de Bruyne.
However, Belgium were knocked out in the quarter finals by Italy in what the analysts described as “a shock to our model”.
The Goldman analysis found teams’ goal-scoring abilities could be explained using four indicators: the strength of the squad, goals scored and conceded in recent games, home advantage and a “tournament effect”, which shows some countries tend to outperform their usual rating in major competitions.
In their first note about their Euros models, the analysts warned of the volatile nature of football: “While we capture the stochastic nature of the tournament carefully, we also see that the forecasts are highly uncertain, even with sophisticated statistical techniques, simply because football is quite an unpredictable game.
“This is, of course, precisely why football is so exciting to watch.”
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