Bitcoin! But it’s different this time! (Really?) for BNC:BLX by Bullbearish

“To the moon!” shouts abound and hopeful rebound charts are everywhere.  And as with all previous Bitcoin corrections, optimistic flames attempt to ignore the encroaching waters of reality.

Reality: Major corrections happen.  Always have, always will.

Reality:  Long-duration TAs trump short-duration TAs … and the chart above is the longest Bitcoin Technical Analysis possible.

The are many versions of this 12-year logarithmic chart in the forums and I’ve always wondered: Are they formed from generic curves made to fit the Bitcoin’s price action — or are they formed from mathematically-precise parabolas?

So, I decided to make my own chart.  And since the vertex of a parabola is it’s most sensitive point, I spent a day researching the dates and prices of Bitcoin’s first transactions.  

In the above chart, all 12 years of Bitcoin’s price history is captured between two parabolas.  The horizontal axis of the outer/upper parabola is Bitcoin’s first published price: Y=0.000764.  (Note:  Some articles show the price as $0.00764.  This is a typo.  The correct price is $0.000764.)

The fact that one can find two parabolas that so nicely contain the highs and lows of *any* organic and seemingly chaotic process is rather remarkable.  This is especially true of Bitcoin’s price history given its propensity to extreme price swings.  And the chart confirms, I believe, that April 14th’s $64854 price was in fact an ATH and that Bitcoin’s price will fall until it hits the bottom parabola — just as it has after all previous ATHs.

I’m sorry to be the bearer (no pun intended) of bad news, but one can drown in water — especially if you don’t know it’s encroaching.

Unanswered question:  Every previous ATH was a sharp-peaked mountaintop.  This April’s ATH was a slow, 4-month-long curve.  In fact, it formed a near perfect parabola. (See my May 16 post about this:

Question is:  Why?  Why is the shape of this ATH different from all previous ones — and is this significant?

Comments are welcome.


(I’m a Bull, but Bear happens.)

PS:  Most BTC historic data records the daily closing price – not the day’s high or low.  Or it is based on one particular exchange’s price.  Such make studies like this one more approximate than desired.

PPS: I previously posted my belief that BTC will not fall below $30,000. I no longer believe this.

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