I posted potential breakout targets, either likely within the next 24 hours. Look for confirmation of breakout with a retest of the respective resistance/support it breaks through, before entering a trade, due to the high possibility of a fakeout or trap.
- Bullish: Up to a 10% breakout would be both extremely positive news for Bitcoin and, if I’m being honest, a little unexpected currently. I opted for a more conservative breakout target here, but in reality with how uninspiring Bitcoin’s price action is, a breakout could be much lower than 10%. This target would land Bitcoin around a solid point of control and inside the next strong value area from a price perspective. This move could posture Bitcoin to resume the consolidation pattern we saw between 55k and 60k.
- Bearish: Up to a 19% breakout below the current pattern is possible, but the in the upper 40k range will be tested first. Once we drop under ~47k we don’t have much support to fall to until the lower 40s, thanks to the Elon breakout in February leaving gaps between 40k and 45k.
Overall I’m for this cycle long term, but short term, especially in light of the unusually heavy inflow, sell and fud we saw in the past 48 hours, I think we are due for some sideways or price action for Bitcoin in the coming days/possibly weeks. As long as Bitcoin price action moves slowly, altcoins have an opportunity to grow. I’d still set a safe stoploss since Bitcoin is known for sometimes unpredictable and aggressive breakouts of the type that can sink altcoin prices. Overall we continue to see healthy industry/MM investment, with 3 very large (over 10,000 BTC each) investments by industry, with two of those buying Bitcoin over 50k, and the third in the upper 40k range in the past two weeks alone- leading credebility to the theory that Bitcoin price action since March was primarily driven by a prolonged accumulation by MM and industry.
4h RSI: approaching oversold but trending for now
4h MACD: crossing
4h EMA: trending currently, closed under the 20MA on the 12 and haven’t recovered over it yet