Weekly Closing candle: Todays weekly close was NEUTRAL in terms of technical bias. The Good news is we did reclaim the 200SMA, the bad news is we still have yet to reclaim and STAY OVER the .5 Fib. This area comes in between $46.7K-$46.8K. At the height of todays bounce we did manage to get to just under it at roughly $46.5K, but then failed. This has been another attempt and failure. The good news is that we have been working off the over bought indicators while maintaining price action between the .382 and .5 FIb’s. It is entirely possible we range here while those High time frame oscillators cool off.
Structure: It is my personal OPINION that we have completed the 4th wave down from $65K to $28.8K of a Grand 5 wave Structure. The Fifth wave, if we are in the process of the final wave, is constructed of 5 sub waves. If the counts were to be made today, it could be argued that the first sub wave terminated at $53K and this dip is forming the second sub wave down with a bottom around $42K (which we wicked to earlier this week). If that is the case we would need to see the .5 Fib taken out soon with a build up to a higher high making our 3rd of 5 coming in sometime in the next few weeks. That wave should be HIGHER than $53K for the sub wave count to be correct.
Macro View: While I am HIGHLY concerned about equities, and know that cryptos have a high degree of correlation with equities, I still see a final high yet to be printed on $BTC. That high should be at a MINIMUM a full 4.236 Fib extension, or $72K-$74K. If your a BULL I have taken the liberty to draw a VERY IMPORTANT Bull/Bear Line. If for any reason we lost that level on a WEEKLY close, then the counts would be invalid and I would side with the Bears that the Bull is OVER. I have NOT sold my own crypto, as I believe that is not what will happen, but something every technician needs to be aware of. Let’s see how time plays out.
ps–If you have ever commented and wonder why I do not respond on Trading view, it is because all social interaction is done on my Twitter handle. I have 5 kids and a full time job where I travel, and simply cant respond to TV and Twitter both. Feel free to follow My handle = @JTheretohelp1
STILL LONG & STRONG!