reasons why price action shall take the downwards direction to be capped at 1.1770 ahead of U.S. jobs data?
2- Germany >> the speed of recovery is being put at risk as companies in the manufacturing powerhouse report shortages of materials .
3- EU >> Europe’s largest economies are starting to feel the squeeze from fraying supply chains .
4- U.S. >> raised its travel advisory for Germany one notch to level 3, saying Americans should reconsider travel due to Covid-19 .
5- U.S. calendar data >> readings show that the pace of the economic recovery is slowing = On the contrary good for the USD as it signs for non-rising , given that the is already more than high in the U.S. + taper talks SOMEHOW is in progress (better than in EU, not considering taper for longer period according to ECB) .
what can can cause a retest at 1.1845 to be capped at 1.1860?
1-Significant drop in the U.S. jobs data (NFP, initial jobless claims, unemployment rate) = to raise investors’ fears Fed would stick to not giving clear calendar date when to start the taper process which is USD negative . ( THE MAIN CATALYST POST EU CPI DATA ) .
2- Upbeat EU data ahead of U.S jobs data (however it may not strongly affect the direction) .
– The main price direction catalyst post EU CPI data is the U.S. jobs data –
– Price range would be 1.1860-1.1770 if U.S jobs data (Friday) happens to be DOWNBEAT –
– Price range would be 1.1850-1.1720 if U.S. jobs data (Friday) happens to be DOWNBEAT, however the 1.1750 support would be hard to break below –
– direction to be capped at 1.1770 ahead of U.S. jobs data –
– THIS OUTLOOK REMAINS ONLY TILL UPCOMING NEWS AND DATA THAT MAY CHANGE THE PRICE RANGE, SO I WILL UPDATE ACCORDINGLY –