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Major indexes analysis for TVC:SPX by Moshkelgosha

In the past trading week, we see major indexes weakness that needs to be evaluated thoroughly.
Before analyzing them, I think it would be nice to mention:

A- Markets are still in the longest Bull market of all time!

B- This is the longest time we have not experienced a 10% correction in the major indexes..!

Now let’s review some classic definitions:


Quadruple witching :(QW)


refers to a date on which stock index futures , stock index options, stock options, and single stock futures expire simultaneously. While stock options contracts and index options expire on the third Friday of every month, all four asset classes expire simultaneously on the third Friday of March, June, September, and December.

Quadruple witching days witness heavy trading volume , in part, due to the offsetting of existing futures and options contracts that are profitable.

While it may result in increased volume and arbitrage opportunities, quadruple witching does not necessarily translate to increased volatility in the markets.

September 17, 2021, is the next QW date.

What Is a Correction?

In investing, a correction is a decline of 10% or more in the price of a security from its most recent peak. Corrections can happen to individual assets, like an individual stock or bond, or to an index measuring a group of assets.

What Is a Bear Market?

A bear market is when a market experiences prolonged price declines. It typically describes a condition in which securities prices fall 20% or more from recent highs amid widespread pessimism and negative investor sentiment.

Bear markets are often associated with declines in an overall market or index like the S&P 500 , but individual securities or commodities can also be considered to be in a bear market if they experience a decline of 20% or more over a sustained period of time—typically two months or more. Bear markets also may accompany general economic downturns such as a recession. Bear markets may be contrasted with upward-trending bull markets.

To wrap it up:

1- we are in a bull cycle

2- Evidence in the charts are in favor of more correction

3- it is highly likely we see high volatility in the coming week(13-17 September)

Now let’s review major indexes:

TVC:SPX :

1- rounding Top

2-Crossing below its Support level and close below it.

3- Lower High Lower Low pattern for 2 consecutive days.

4- closing at a lower level for 5 consecutive days, this is the first time after February 22, 2021!

TVC:NDX

1- rounding Top

2-Crossing below its Support level and close below it.

TVC:DJI
1-Gann Top swing: very strong reversal pattern
2- closing below 50EMA for two consecutive days.
3- Lower High Lower Low pattern for 2 consecutive days.

Reference Articles:
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/correction.asp

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearmarket.asp

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