Sunday Market Outlook – Week 30 for CME_MINI:ES1! by CoenKuijpers

Sentiment: Bullish

I make these market outlooks more for myself than for anyone else to have some kind of history of my thoughts prior to the fact. They are in no way trading advice, but should be treated as my views on the market.

ES mini
Weekly chart analysis

My three trend indicating moving averages (20, 50, 100) are still pointing up meaning that there is still upward potential in this market.
The S&P500 just broke up to a new all time high, which in my view is also a bullish , although some profit taking might be experienced at these level, which might temper the way up.
Last week there was a 9 sell on the MRI indicator, which indicates that there is a big chance of a 1-4 candle correction to the downside. This played out nicely on Monday and some nice profits could be had shorting Monday. But the correction was already over on Tuesday which would have made exiting the shorts hard to time. Because we have reached a new ATH I think the 1-4 candle correction this time only took 1 candle and we can continue the coming week up again, barred the profit taking that might happen at these ATH .

Daily chart analysis

The daily chart looks very very strong. We broke the break out line and there is a star on Friday’s candle indicating a strong buy signal in my opinion.
Also all the MA’s are sloping up, so we are still in an uptrend on the daily too.

Nasdaq mini
Weekly chart analysis

Last week we had a MRI warning candle warning for an upcoming MRI 9 sell in this case. Therefore there is a high chance that this week we’ll get a 1-4 week correction in the NASDAQ and caution should be in place if you are long the NASDAQ.
This moving averages are very strong and the angle up of the 20 week MA increased in July, after flattening a little in June.
Mainly based on the MRI I expect the NASDAQ to move sideways to meet the 20 week MA and the trendline that started on the COVID crash back in March 2020.

Daily chart analysis

Although both MRI (starred candle buy) and MA are bullish on the NASDAQ, the fact that we are at the break out line of the MRI , might support the 1-4 week candle correction looming on the weekly chart.

Dow Jones mini
Weekly chart analysis

The Dow Jones is currently trying to break new all times highs as well, but is struggling. Last week we had the MRI buy star and the candle is strong, so maybe we will manage to go higher this week.
The weekly MAs are indicating the uptrend is still there and the MA 20 was successfully rejected, so that shouldn’t be hindering us seeking higher levels.
The MRI extension C also has played out already it seems and therefore is also no factor anymore.

Daily chart analysis

The picture on the daily chart is almost the same as on the weekly chart. Only thing I don’t like here and that might stop an all to sudden move up is the vicinity of the MRI break out line.
After some sideways movement of the MAs they also seem to found there way up, which adds to my bullish stance on the Dow as well

Russell mini
Weekly chart analysis

Where the S&P , NASDAQ and Dow seem to walk in lockstep, the Russell has a mind of its own.
The picture I see here on the weekly chart is not that bullish at all. The MA 20 has turned sideways since mid June price has been trying to break down the 2200 handle since then. the Russell still was able to hold it, but the last 2 week the attempts to break 2200 became more serious. This time around even the long term trendline stemming from March 2020 was pierced, but it recovered last week. As long as there isn’t a second close below the trendline the week right after a break I consider the line still intact, but it weakens the line. That’s for sure.
Actually I don’t think the trendline will be holding that much longer (it is quite steep) and we might go down and visit the 50 week MA.

Daily chart analysis

The daily chart of the Russell I don’t like for a bit. There is a double dead cross. The 20 MA crossing both the 50 MA and the 100 MA in two consecutive days. So there is a high probability that we will find lower the coming days.

So that’s it for this weeks outlook. I hope it was helpful seeing my views on the market.

I wish y’all a happy trading week and remember these are just my views and not trading advice! Always do your own research.

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