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The big picture with Elliot Theory for Bitcoin !!! for KUCOIN:BTCUSDT by ekarasil

Hello everyone!

Elliot’s wave theory is a theory that emerged by Elliot with analyzing decades of investment instruments, examining price movements and investor psychology.

In Elliot theory, it consists of 5 impulse waves – bullish (Impulsive Waves-1,2,3,4,5) and 3 corrective-bear (A-B-C) waves in a full cycle.

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I wanted to combine the Elliot wave theory with Bitcoin price movements. I wanted to make a synthesis not only in terms of price, but also in terms of what happened during the uptrend.

To use this theory, we need to consider the 4-year process, which is the full cycle of Bitcoin , and look at the big picture. Almost everyone knows that the reason why this cycle is about 4 years in Bitcoin is related to halvening.

For this, it makes the most sense to start from the bottom after the 2018 bear market which is after the 2017 high.
Bitcoin Elliot synthesis;

In the 1st wave, there is little belief in the uptrend and there will be no incredible rise. Here we see that Bitcoin went through an intermediate period of rise in 2019, while there was no halving there, the investor did not have a mega-bull expectation and incredible rises did not come.

Wave 2 is a correction of wave 1.

The 3rd wave is usually the longest lasting and everyone sees as bullish , good news, media attention and fundamental positive developments are seen in this process.

In wave 4, most traders think that the bullish phase is over and the cycle is over.

Wave 5 is the final ascension phase.

I wanted to point out 2 possibilities on the chart, when I drew it in yellow, we saw the 5th phase when it was at 64 thousand and now we are in the decline phase with corrective waves. However, in the probability I indicated with white, we are in phase 4 and the 5th and final ascension phase may be ahead.

I would like to share some of my personal opinions on this subject, first of all, it is possible to see in all chain analyzes that there is no rise that can reach the euphoria phase in every cycle. Of course, we should not forget that there is no guarantee that we will see that phase. Synthesizing Elliot’s full cycle into BTC’s 4-year cycle, the fact that wave 4 is happening now fits better with the event processing, also with the pyhsological and event phases, and chain analysis. In another thought, it doesn’t make much sense to me that the yellow probability is about 43 weeks, around 300-day with 3rd phase which is corrected in 3 weeks ( ie 4th phase takes 3 weeks). But when we look at the white one, stage 4 will be almost 3 months, and stage 3 is 400 days.

Good day to everyone !

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