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$TSLA – 2 possible paths short term for NASDAQ:TSLA by ir-rizzle

Here’s a look at what Tesla might do in the near to mid term, over the next few weeks. Please forgive the messy chart, i know there’s a lot going on here, but i wanted to show my work and the reasoning for each scenario.

Bullish:


The bullish scenario is that we had a primary wave 4 consisting of and ABC structure which ended on may 19 with the 545 low, and now we have begun primary wave 5. If that is the case, it could be that we put in a wave 2 low on july 8 at 620 and are on our way to retest previous ATH as we begin wave 3 of primary wave 5. This path has a clean break and retest of the dashed down trend line , as well as a bounce off the 50% fib. Watch for a clean break of the solid down trend line and a daily close above 700, to break the wave 1 high as well as clear the supply zone . This will confirm that we in an intermediate wave 3.

Bearish:


The bearish scenario has two possibilities in and of itself.

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The first is that we are in fact in a primary wave 5, but have not completed intermediate wave 2. This is the highest probability scenario in my opinion as we don’t have a clear 3 wave structure that would give us confidence of having completed this corrective move. Look for a reversal around 670 to 700, as we approach the solid DTL and the supply zone as well as the -68.1% to -78.6% retracement of the corrective A wave (fib levels shown in red) and a bottoming around 600 where we have several areas of support, including the 68.1% retracement of intermediate wave 1 (fib levels in blue), another retest of the dashed DTL , the -14.6% retracement (fib levels shown in red) of corrective wave B to complete wave 2, as well as a supply zone and POC on the volume profile . As you can see, we have several technical levels and indicators at this level. Further support for this scenario comes from the MACD and RSI indicators. We are about to have a MACD cross and while the RSI has curled up, we’ve seen it get rejected as it approaches overbought levels every time since the January ATH . This could line up with a wave b of intermediate wave 2, initiating wave c as we approach multiple points of resistance.

The second possibility is that we have not completed primary wave 4, and this is actually an ABCDE triangle that is forming. I have not plotted this on the chart because it makes the chart even more messy, and if this was the case, it would basically play out the same way as the first bearish scenario, with wave E landing anywhere between 600 and 580 which lines up with a lower supply zone and the 200 EMA .

TL:DR: Tesla is headed to 600 in the short term after a brief flirtation with 670-680. A close above 700 would indicate that short/mid term bull case is in play instead.

Whatever path the price action eventually takes, in the long term, tesla is heading to the moon. You can bet on that.

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