USDCAD Weekly Outlook for OANDA:USDCAD by stimichele

Hello traders,

This is my outlook for FX:USDCAD ,

With dollar strength rising this week, so will usdcad . We will have a somewhat quite week this week with USD and CAD both having a bank holiday tomorrow, as well as a few economic data reports this week, with more important events on the cad side. On Wednesday, for Cad, we have BOC rate statement, PMI, and job opening, I expect these reports to come out mixed with some positive/negative not causing too much movement in price, as Cads economy isn’t strong enough to taper just yet. On Friday, volatility will pick up in that we have both PPI for USD, and employment change/unemployment rate for CAD. I believe that USD news will be lower than expected and CAD being mixed again as employment changes have been on the weaker side for CAD, but overall that dollar weakness will help price push down lower, distributing the net short positions accumulated throughout the beginning of the week.

Technical side:

1. I expect price to consolidate on Monday 09/06, then by Tuesday we begin moving bullish to start accumulating more short orders as we move bullish to the HTF order block. COT report on 08/31 shows commercials added a 2600 long positions and reduced their short positions by 6500. However, commercials are still net bearish . There could possibly be a deeper pull back, but at the end of the week, I’m expecting TVC:DXY to lose that strength and continue bearish .

Edit: we can possibly see a deeper pullback to 1.26145 if the current target is violated. I forgot to add that in.

Potential Bullish Fundamental Catalyst:

1. 09/08 Increased Job Openings-usd

2.Lower Unemployment Claims/ oil inventory-usd

3.Lower PPI, inflation curving down, reduction in government spending package.-usd

4. accelerating the TF for rate hikes.-usd

5. Higher inflation numbers, unemployment rates, lower job opening/filling-CAD

Bearish Fundamental Catalyst:

1.09/15 Increased corporate/capital earning tax-usd

2. 09/27 3.5 Trillion Government spending package bill (can be negotiated through November)– possible 5-10% pull back on equities.-usd

3. increased inflation , less job openings, higher unemployment claims-usd

4.Stimulus support because of rising delta cases

5. delaying tapering process.-usd

6. CAD good economic growth with strong economic data reports

7. CAD-rumors of tapering

Hope everyone has a great trading week :)

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