– Core PMI
-Crude Oil Inventory
With PMI out today-it usually doesn’t cause too much chaos in the market like CPI or NFP, however, since the CPI numbers are posing as economic risk and the probability of rate hikes are starting to increase, there will be a lot of in the market within these next few weeks as the Fed talks more about possible interest rate hikes in 2022/2023. I believe we will still have another massive sell-off in the future as the fed further discuss tapering of support.
Yesterday’s CPI report came back way higher than expected which is not good for the economy. However, we saw that DXY increased and gold decreased both in favor of a stronger dollar. I believe this move happened because:
1. Investors had to get a better buying price/grab enough liquidity to move prices higher.
2. Fulfill the daily range and target the low.
3. DXY made a temporary high before selling off which temporarily strengthens the dollar causing USD pairs like GBPUSD , EURUSD , AUDUSD , to move in favor of USD.
Today, I expect the same sell-off at release as yesterday (but on a less volatile level)
1. get a better buying price for investors/grab enough liquidity to move price higher
2. fulfill a daily low range of around 1800 and reach a high of 1816-1821.
3. DXY looks like it’s reaching a order block zone which will then have DXY retesting the highs than a possible reversal after it fails to break the highs.
After today’s move from 8:30 am-10:30 am, I expect a continuation of the highs in preparation for Powell’s senate appearance where he will most likely need to start speaking about tapering off stimulus support, asset purchases, etc which are all hawkish tones that will push gold down once again.