Denmark vs Czech Republic: Euro 2020 Odds, Expected Goals

Much like March Madness, major soccer tournaments often create opportunities for lower-ranked teams to play their way into elite company. At Euro 2020, Denmark vs Czech Republic is a matchup of Cinderellas in a Saturday quarterfinal.

The game will be played in Baku, Azerbaijan, kicking off at 12:00p ET on ESPN.

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Path To Quarterfinals: Denmark looks to write Hollywood ending

Denmark has been the talk of Euro 2020 proceedings. In front of a hometown crowd in Copenhagen, their opening match against Finland was halted after superstar midfielder Christian Eriksen collapsed from a cardiac episode. He was revived on the field by medical personnel and rushed to a hospital. Thankfully, his recovery is reportedly going well.

The team had to continue the match, lost, but a huge win against Russia at the end of group play earned them a knockout round date with Wales. In the Round of 16, Denmark dominated Wales 4-0.

Czech Republic didn’t look like a contender after a warm-up thrashing by Italy. However, a win against Scotland and a tie with Croatia earned them a third-place spot. The Czechs pulled arguably the biggest upset so far when they beat the Netherlands 2-0 on Sunday.

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Denmark vs Czech Republic Odds

Both countries have won this tournament in years past – the Czech Republic in 1976 (as Czechoslovakia) and Denmark in 1992. Outside their bases, few probably believed either side could earn a spot in the semifinals. Now, one will.

In Euro competition, the Czechs have won both meetings against the Danes. However, the teams have not met in the tournament since 2004.

Here are the odds for full-time (90 minutes plus stoppage time). If Denmark or Czech Republic advances in extra time or penalty kicks, bets in this market on either team will be graded as a loss, with draw bets graded as a win.

Denmark vs Czech Republic Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Denmark, despite the loss of Eriksen from the attack, have similar numbers in goal tally and expected goals. Their xG number is second best among the quarterfinalists. However, Czech Republic has well outperformed their xGA. While they enter the match with a +3 goal differential, their xGD shows a different level of quality.

Here are the stats, along with the rankings among the remaining eight Euro 2020 teams.

Team Goals Scored Goals Allowed Goal Differential Euro 2020 xG Euro 2020 xGA Euro 2020 xGD
Czech Republic 5 (T6th) 2 (4th) +3 (6th) 5.11 (7th) 5.48 (5th) -0.37 (6th)
Denmark 9 (T2nd) 3 (5th) +6 (4th) 9.56 (2nd) 3.12 (3rd) 6.44 (3rd)

Betting Angle

The expected goal analysis suggests the Czechs defense could be due for some regression. It’s also unlikely they’ll get another super-chip over a goalie like they did in stunning Scotland.

The Danes must be wary as the Czechs have counterpunched as well as any team in this tournament.

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