PGA Championship: Struggling Rory McIlroy Still Among Betting Favorites

The 2021 PGA Championship heads to the Ocean Course at Kiawah Island in South Carolina the week of May 20-24. Collin Morikawa returns as the defending 2020 champion after winning his first major title at TPC Harding Park in California last year.

Hideki Matsuyama is the reigning PGA Tour major champ fresh off his victory at The Masters. Matsuyama’s first major win at Augusta National Golf Club, along with some disappointing performances by some of the biggest names in golf, have shuffled the odds for the second major of 2021.

The PGA Championship returns to Kiawah Island for the first time since Rory McIlroy won by eight strokes at 13-under par in 2012. Other notable finishers that year include Justin Rose (T3), Keegan Bradley (T3), and Adam Scott (T11).

Below, we’ll look at the 2021 PGA Championship odds for the favorites and highlight some of the biggest movers following the Masters.

PGA Championship betting odds 2021

Dustin Johnson, No. 1 in the Official World Golf Ranking, remains the betting favorite despite a missed cut in his defense of his 2020 Masters title from November. There’s quite a bit of discrepancy for who should follow at No. 2 by the odds at the top US sportsbooks. FanDuel Sportsbook has Jon Rahm second following his T5 finish at Augusta National; BetMGM Sportsbook has world No. 2 Justin Thomas next; while DraftKings Sportsbook is sticking with McIlroy.

The rest of the top five at each of those three books is filled out by 2020 US Open champ Bryson DeChambeau, four-time major winner Brooks Koepka, and the resurgent Jordan Spieth. Tiger Woods, who has won the PGA Championship four times and tied for 11th at the Ocean Course in 2012, will miss a second straight major following a single-vehicle accident in late February.

See our 2021 PGA Championship page for complete odds here.

Masters champ Hideki Matsuyama among biggest risers

Matsuyama’s odds to win the PGA Championship have improved from +3300 at BetMGM on April 1 to +2200 after he donned the green jacket; the change represents improvement from an implied win probability of 2.94% to 4.35%. BetMGM reported 1.4% of the tickets and 3.2% of the money were on Matsuyama prior to Round 1 of the Masters.

His 2022 Masters odds dropped as low as +2200 after ranging from +5000 to +6000 for the 2021 tournament.

Can Rory McIlroy regain his dominance?

McIlroy is a three-time major winner, but he hasn’t won one since the 2014 PGA Championship. He has no PGA Tour victories since claiming four titles in 2019, though only two of those were on American soil. Still, the books are standing by the former world No. 1 amid what’s sure to still be heavy betting action as the only champion of Kiawah island in the field.

McIlroy slipped from No. 4 in the OWGR at the end of 2020 to No. 13 following the missed cut at the Masters. After opening the year with a third-place finish at the European Tour’s Abu Dhabi HSBC Championship, he missed the cut in three of four non-WGC events on the PGA Tour ending with the Masters. His odds for the PGA Championship are the lowest of 2021’s remaining three majors at DraftKings.

Notable 2021 PGA Championship odds

Dustin Johnson (+900): The missed cut at the Masters did nothing to change Johnson’s odds. He remains the betting favorite following back-to-back runner-up finishes at the PGA Championship.

Jordan Spieth (+1400): Grabbed a share of the fifth-best odds at both DraftKings and FanDuel with a T3 at the Masters. He had been +2000 and 10th by the odds at BetMGM prior to his victory at the Valero Texas Open.

Brooks Koepka (+1600) The odds for the two-time winner of the PGA Championship didn’t change with the MC at the Masters. The greater concern is his surgically repaired knee.

Collin Morikawa (+2500): The reigning champion struggled late in 2020 but is back in form with a win and two other top-10 finishes this year. He closed at +3000 ahead of last year’s event.

Will Zalatoris (+2800): Still without full PGA Tour status, the runner-up at the Masters vaulted from +6600 at BetMGM on April 1 to +3300. That nearly doubles his implied win probability.

Rickie Fowler (+4000): Despite not being invited to the 2021 Masters, not winning a tournament since 2019, and never having won a major, Fowler is 22nd by the odds at DraftKings. He has fallen outside of the top 100 in the OWGR but has 11 career top-10 finishes in majors.

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